Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Cabo Verde
  • Libya
  • Morocco
  • Tunisia
  • Djibouti
  • Egypt
  • Equatorial Guinea
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Nigeria
  • Senegal
  • Burkina Faso
  • Ethiopia

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $715,868$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{681,317.1}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 124.8)}}\) (asimptote \(681,317.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $18,968$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,393.0}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 125.7)}}\) (asimptote \(18,393.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50,730$ on 2020-10-25

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,396$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,215.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 200.4)}}\) (asimptote \(13,215.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $94$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{263.5}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 247.2)}}\) (asimptote \(263.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,017$ on 2020-10-25

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $56,013$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{71,672.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 186.9)}}\) (asimptote \(71,672.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $795$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,026.0}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 179.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,026.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,487$ on 2020-10-25

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $197,481$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{438,572.6}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 230.6)}}\) (asimptote \(438,572.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,301$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,018.6}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 212.1)}}\) (asimptote \(6,018.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,985$ on 2020-10-25

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $48,799$ on 2020-10-25

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $819$ on 2020-10-25

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $42,948$ on 2020-10-25

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,536$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,351.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 69.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,351.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.9}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 58.8)}}\) (asimptote \(59.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $73$ on 2020-10-25

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $106,540$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,328.0}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 97.7)}}\) (asimptote \(102,328.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,199$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,938.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,938.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,438$ on 2020-10-25

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,079$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,229.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 108.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,229.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85.2}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 74.5)}}\) (asimptote \(85.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34$ on 2020-10-25

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Nigeria recovered 85%
Senegal recovered 78%
Burkina Faso recovered 48%
Cabo Verde recovered 11%
Ethiopia recovered 2%

Nigeria⮸

Population $206,139,589$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $61,992$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60,906.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 98.3)}}\) (asimptote \(60,906.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,130$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,124.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 70.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,124.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,397$ on 2020-10-25

Senegal⮸

Population $16,743,927$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,551$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,021.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16,021.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $321$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{323.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 104.7)}}\) (asimptote \(323.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $976$ on 2020-10-25

Burkina Faso⮸

Population $20,903,273$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,451$ on 2020-10-25

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $65$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 23.3)}}\) (asimptote \(55.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $367$ on 2020-10-25

Ethiopia⮸

Population $114,963,588$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $93,343$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,442.6}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 131.0)}}\) (asimptote \(95,442.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-06-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,426$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,442.2}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 87.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,442.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-05-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $44,374$ on 2020-10-25